AnnotatedOpinions.com

Even if Congress passes legislation — a good bet — the finished product will fall far short of Obama’s extravagant promises. . . [AO: That’s ok because it seems Obama has adjusted his goals based on what he thinks can be accomplished in the Senate with the requirement of 60 votes and Republican senators basically saying NO to any and everything despite the majority of Americans wanting health reform. In short, don’t worry about Obama.]  

The various health-care proposals represent atrocious legislation. To be sure, they would provide insurance to 30 million or more Americans by 2019. People would enjoy more security. But even these gains must be qualified. Some of the newly insured will get healthier, but how many and by how much is unclear. . . [AO: Clearly there is uncertainty about some of the exact numbers. But that alone cannot be the reason not to pass the health insurance reform bill. Basically, the writer, Robert Samuelson, is saying that the bill will make some people better off but Congress can’t be sure how many people will be helped so the Senate should not pass the bill. That seems wrong.]  

The remaining uninsured may also exceed estimates. Under the Senate bill, they would total 24 million in 2019, reckons Richard Foster, chief actuary of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. But a wild card is immigration. From 1999 to 2008, about 60 percent of the increase in the uninsured occurred among Hispanics. [AO: See
above. Basically, the same uncertainty argument.]  

Obama’s plan might add almost an additional $1 trillion in spending over a decade — and more later. Even if this is fully covered, as Obama contends, by higher taxes and cuts in Medicare  eimbursements, this revenue could have been used to cut the existing deficits. . . [AO: Ahhh… A deficit hawk. The healthcare of as many as 24 million Americans or more should be sacrificed to shave a few points off the deficit. But why? The responsibility of Congress is to set priorities. Congress (assuming a thumbs-up vote), and frankly the majority of Americans who support health insurance reform, favored prioritizing health over deficits.  

Obama's overhaul would also change how private firms insure workers. Perhaps 18 million workers could lose coverage and 16 million gain it, as companies adapt to new regulations and subsidies, estimates the Lewin Group, a consulting firm. Private insurers argue that premiums in the individual and small-group markets, where many workers would end up, might rise an extra 25 to 50 percent over a decade. The administration and the CBO disagree. The dispute underlines the bills' immense uncertainties. . . [AO: Again with the uncertainty argument. Taking a page from the cigarette companies’ play book, Samuelson is using uncertainty as the three legs to support his argument.   

When some argued that smoking was bad for the smoker’s health, Big Tobacco responded that there was no conclusive evidence that smoking caused cancer. In other words, it was uncertain. Samuelson is doing the same here.]