AnnotatedOpinions.com

We’re spending more than a trillion to “stimulate” things. Jobs. Car sales. Real estate. Even to prop up an ungovernable Afghanistan.  

We could spend a tiny fraction of that to fix one of the things most important to most of us everyday — weather forecasts.   

Short-term forecasts, like the predicted early hit of winter last week, generally are helpful although often inaccurate. Long-term forecasts usually are more harmful than helpful. . .  

Last week, the often quoted Colorado State University Hurricane Forecast Team, now in its 27th year, made these predictions for 2010:  

• Six to eight hurricanes.  

• At least one to hit the USA.  

Last year, the same forecasters predicted this:  

• Seven hurricanes. There were only three.  

• At least one to hit the USA. None did.  

Such preseason forecasts do triple damage. They give insurance companies an extra argument for raising rates. They have many of us spend money for unnecessary preparations. . .  

[AO: The problem with throwing money at long-term weather forecasts is that it is not clear that this is possible. Indeed, based on years of research and what we have to show for that research, one might conclude that spending valuable currency on long-term weather forecasting is a waste of resources in light of other immediate needs.  Just because we can't do something well doesn't mean that what it needs is a stimulus.

Moreover, the “damage” the writer, Al Neuharth, identifies is not enevitable. That is because insurers know, and we also know, that long-term weather forecasting is unreliable. As a result, anyone who takes specific actions in response to such forecasts should do so knowing that those actions may be entirely unnecessary. In other words, whatever actions are taken, those action should be discounted by the probability that the expected outcome will come to pass. This is what we humans do in our daily activities.  

For example, we are willing to drive cars without excessive protection because even though driving is dangerous and can lead to injury, the probability of significant injury is low. Race car drivers, on the other hand, because of the likelihood of crashes usually wear special protection when they race. Note that the protection is not necessarily worn because of the high speeds at which racers drive. Driving at a high speed alone without an accident will not result in injury.   

Similarly, insurers and individuals must consider the likelihood of damage when taking action in response to long-term weather forecasts. Such consideration can limit any resulting damage. ]

·       A show of resolve [Chicago Tribune]

·      The reality of Afghanistan: We will not remake Afghan society
nor create a recognizable democracy there. [LA Times]

·       The Afghanistan Speech: President Obama needs to tell the
American people how he intends to pay for the war and how he will decide when Afghanistan will be able to stand on its own. [New York Times] 

·     More means less: President Obama’s decision to send more soldiers to Afghanistan amounts to the best of several risky options. [Philadelphia Inquirer]

·      Obama’s get-in, get-out plan faces harsh Afghan realities: But carefully crafted strategy offers a reasonable prospect for success. [USA Today]

·      Afghanistan: How long until we know? Whether President Obama’s new strategy is working should become quite clear within two years. [USA Today]

·      Surge, then leave: Obama made the right decision — even if it will make everyone a little unhappy. [Washington Post]

Accounting for the costs of war [Atlanta Journal-Constitution]

Climategate: Dissent on ice – You don’t have to be a climate change
skeptic to be appalled by the exchange of e-mails from top scientists. [Boston Globe]

Fame and its new upper crust [Chicago Tribune]

We need a new women’s health movement [LA Times]

Advertising: We sue harder? [Boston Globe]

What the U.S. can achieve in Afghanistan, despite Karzai: Washington can compensate for his failings by persuading him to choose strong, principled Cabinet ministers and delegate authority to them. [LA
Times]

Look beyond Iran’s posturing [Boston Globe]

Iran’s military dictatorship [Washington Post]

Swiss ban on minarets is pure discrimination: Sunday’s referendum is a reminder that cultural anxieties can be inflamed even in the most tolerant country. [LA Times]

Health-care fatigue: A desultory debate of rote talking points and cheap demagoguery. [Washington Post]

Woods: Breaking gossip a bore [Chicago Tribune]

Crash and don’t tell: Tiger Woods is the refreshing converse of the
loathsome White House party-crashers. [Washington Post]

Collisions with the future: The world’s grandest science experiment is up and running again – no thanks to a bird. [Philadelphia Inquirer]

More and more, the truth of Christmas is put to the test [Chicago Tribune]

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Editorial Note: This feature, “What They Are Saying” will be discontinued on Monday, December 7, 2009 so that we can bring you more annotated opinions.

Let’s end the War on Drugs [Atlanta Journal-Constitution]

Growth, at last [Chicago Tribune]

Too Little of a Good Thing: The Obama stimulus plan is helping, but it not nearly enough. Unless something changes, high unemployment will continue for years to come. [New York Times]

Six Tests for Equality and Fairness: Political battles in six jurisdictions could have a profound impact on whether the United States will extend the right to marry to same-sex couples. [New York Times]

So what if they promote it? Let’s suppose, for a moment, that conservative critics are correct: Gay educators want to “promote homosexuality” in American schools. [Philadelphia Inquirer]

Police these pills and powders: Congress should give the FDA the power it now lacks to regulate the dietary supplements industry. [Boston Globe]

Don’t count illegal immigrants? That doesn’t add up [LA Times]

‘Public option’ politics: The government-run option is a good compromise, but lawmakers avoided dealing with its true cost. [LA Times]

What’s next for health care: The battle now is not about whether to pass a bill, it’s over how to define the product. [Washington Post]

Adrift in an ocean of complexity: The important work of being informed about public issues has been crowded out of our lives at the very time that big money has found a way to insinuate itself into nearly every cavity of government. [Boston Globe]

Saving the news [Chicago Tribune]

The Court and Your Savings: Congress wisely put limits on the ability of mutual funds to overcharge investors. The Supreme Court needs to give the law the power that Congress intended. [New York Times]

Superpowers with super problems: Most Russians are peculiarly willing to accept their place. This is a horrifying idea to most Americans, who have deeply absorbed our sense of a Jeffersonian democracy. [Boston Globe]

Afghanistan’s drug war: The farmers aren’t the enemy – Opium cultivation and heroin production fuel corruption and aid the Taliban, but targeting the growers isn’t the answer. [LA Times]

Inside Iran’s opposition: Even if its leaders supplant the current regime, the biggest changes might be of style. [Washington Post]

Our sense of troubled normalcy returns: One year after the financial panic was at full bore the US economy is more shackled than ever to a military budget, which is money spent, for all its benefits, on death. [Boston Globe]

We’re killing communication: At 78 years old, I can authoritatively say that ‘talking’ isn’t what it used to be [USA Today]

The Shepard Fairey-AP case: A clearer picture: The dispute over the popular Obama poster gives the courts a chance to better explain what is fair use of creative works. [LA Times]

Cape Wind: The Wampanoag tribes’ attempt to block a clean energy project off the Massachusetts coast should be rejected by the responsible federal and state officials. [New York Times]

Wind power might blow a hole in bird populations: Some species will not nest near the turbines, while eagles, hawks and migratory flocks can be cut down by the spinning blades. [LA Times]

Shale game: A boom in natural gas drilling in Pennsylvania will ease energy demands and boost the state economy. But there’s reason to be concerned that environmental regulators won’t be able to keep up with this new gold rush. [Philadelphia Inquirer]

Science, faith used to be allies: Tellingly, President Obama’s pick to head the National Institutes of Health — Francis Collins — touts this symbiotic relationship today. In recent years, some Americans have come to view science and religion as consistent antagonists, butting heads over everything from the origin of the cosmos to when human life begins (abortion) and when it ends (euthanasia). [USA
Today]  

Just Don’t Call It a Jobs Stimulus [Washington Post]

Let Congress Go Without Insurance: What better way to attune our leaders to the needs of their constituents without health insurance than to put them in the same position? [New York Times]

GOP Rift With Allies: On health reform, Republicans and the business community are on different pages. [Washington Post]

Patriot Act Excesses: The expiration of USA Patriot Act provisions should be a chance for Congress to curtail some of the excessive powers it granted to the executive branch. [New York Times]

Writing an end to the policy of ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’? [LA Times]

The march to end a century of persecution: Gay-rights advocacy must shift to the national stage. [Philadelphia Inquirer]

The Tanker Saga, Continued: After two bungled attempts, Washington  must ensure that the Pentagon runs a fair and open competition for a new Air Force midair refueling tanker. [New York Times]

Arne Duncan: Taking responsibility for our young people [Chicago Tribune]

President Obama, talk is cheap when it comes to curbing youth violence [New York Daily News]

When children with illegal firearms rule [Chicago Tribune]

Working for Their Clients: Congress should lift sweeping and unwarranted restrictions that hamper the work of local legal services offices. [New York Times]

An Underconsidered Benefit: One significant collateral cost of not acting on health reform: maintaining the world’s highest rate of incarceration. [Washington Post]

A Better Health Reform: We can fix the biggest problems without excessive government meddling. [Washington Post]

Facing disaster: Earthquakes, tsunamis: We know they’re coming; why won’t we prepare? [LA Times]

The Letterman lesson: Use the truth as a weapon – It is now a week since Lettermangate burst onto TV screens, front pages and BlackBerrys nationwide, and the media remain in unapologetic full-throttle. [USA Today]

Establishing Security in Afghanistan: Biden’s backing of Karzi is a distant memory, but did he turn on Afghanistan’s president too soon? [Washington Post]

Ardi, Humans and Primates: The discovery of a 4.4-million-year-old skeleton, called Ardi, demonstrates how quickly early hominids moved down a separate path of evolution from primates. [New York Times]

Where were the doctors? It’s fair to ask if doctors who care for ballplayers share culpability in the steroid era. [Boston Globe]

A new Winnie-the-Pooh? Oh bother: A sequel adds little to be desired to A.A. Milne’s classic tales. [LA Times]

Fighting fake Ids: With good reason, the 9/11 Commission called for tightening driver licensing procedures after its finding that many of the terrorists used fake IDs to board and hijack airplanes in the attacks
on New York and the Pentagon. [Philadelphia Inquirer]

Health Reform Jitters: The rage at town hall debates stems in part from obscuring hard choices on costs. [Washington Post]

Why are homeowners not being helped? A Treasury report finds lenders are not using a federal program to help struggling mortgage holders modify their loans. [LA Times]

A new abuse on Wall Street: Big private equity companies are hungry to take over failed banks. [Boston Globe]

Hearing Problem: Politicians say one thing about health reform, and people hear another. [Washington Post]

Attack of the drones: Air Force drones make the world a safer place and send a warning to terrorists. [Chicago Tribune]

More Than Missiles: Force alone will not be enough to defeat the extremists in Pakistan. When Congress returns, lawmakers and the White House must make passing an aid bill a priority. [New York Times]

Maligning the Stimulus: President Obama’s economic recovery plan is working, despite what its critics say. [Washington Post]

Washington is scaring our Latin American neighbors: The U.S. military buildup in Colombia has rattled nerves regionwide. The reasons and the intent should be clearly explained to the hemisphere’s leaders. [LA Times]

That Sneaky August: Somnolent summer month? Here are four reasons why it might not be. [Washington Post]

The Chino Prison Riot: The prison riot in California should serve as a warning to officials across the country not to try to balance state budgets by holding inmates in inhumane conditions. [New York Times]

Must science declare a holy war on religion? The so-called New Atheists are attacking the mantra of science and faith being compatible. Others in the science community question the value of confrontation. [LA Times]

A Century-Old Principle: Keep Corporate Money Out of Elections: There are worrying signs that there may well be five votes on the Supreme Court to rule that the ban on corporate contributions violates the First Amendment. [New York Times]

A tightrope walk between whimsy and rage: In August 1974, an elfin tightrope-walker gently mocked the Twin Towers and incorporated them into his fun. [Boston Globe]